Are Google Worried They Might Lose Money if They Update Penguin?

An interesting theory posited over at webmasterworld.com here - to quote:-

Do you think google hasn't done an analysis of how much recovery there will be on the next penguin refresh? What if they calculate that tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of sites will recover partially or fully from penguin, restoring huge amounts of organic traffic collectively to the sites that are now paying much more than they normally would for clicks in adwords? What if the degree of recovery would cause a severe stumble in google revenue and profits, causing an overreaction by the market and a serious tumble in googles stock price? The ramifications of this are vast, all the way down to individual employees getting stock options that suddenly would be underwater, likely with no hope to recover.

I mentioned this theory to Aaron Wall, and he sent me 3 replies:-

@puresilva I've seen sites which are getting pounded every week by more SAPE ... months and months and months and months of it

&mdash aaron wall (@aaronwall) July 29, 2014

@puresilva I think the rise of negative SEO has more to do with the lack of Penguin updates than anything else.

&mdash aaron wall (@aaronwall) July 29, 2014

@puresilva Google's desires/goals/ambitions to defund SEO don't immediately lead to huge growth in AdWords revenues

&mdash aaron wall (@aaronwall) July 29, 2014

What do you think? It's been 10 months since a Penguin update.

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